Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 87612.172955 92441.788525 97271.338463 102459.889002 107873.046534 113350.615877 119308.965994
2025-11-23 79188.352236 86520.902250 94058.786037 102376.865600 111288.254241 120538.621556 130856.536684
2025-11-30 74258.510157 83377.804114 92955.925170 103745.408126 115540.132964 128021.013734 142205.293267
2025-12-07 70222.142547 80673.852068 91850.376597 104657.430519 118892.112625 134192.967313 151847.812284
2025-12-14 66343.335386 77784.870216 90215.757900 104675.551088 120981.597329 138748.652268 159518.483658
2025-12-21 63211.950934 75487.230719 89015.800423 104964.859836 123183.049795 143273.020337 167029.086885
2025-12-28 61251.316160 74363.819449 89001.250632 106464.998447 126641.972689 149128.437113 175987.091424
2026-01-04 59291.074498 73109.387849 88720.743707 107555.005375 129546.515194 154295.465760 184130.964630
2026-01-11 57305.912795 71712.462348 88174.578720 108245.144208 131914.042871 158794.973699 191480.965268
2026-01-18 55226.594056 70101.358537 87285.459542 108448.192688 133642.347123 162504.512729 197886.617897
2026-01-25 53364.270623 68664.839789 86526.023821 108733.581309 135408.929423 166218.042467 204276.408477
2026-02-01 51495.776653 67142.049869 85592.232547 108744.457290 136794.487068 169445.225779 210073.619643
2026-02-08 50318.479623 66436.458707 85625.829216 109916.091442 139583.765462 174371.175452 217954.211554
2026-02-15 48606.630832 65006.007985 84722.123219 109900.795330 140906.223744 177531.684333 223732.968297
2026-02-22 47741.092579 64598.268901 85045.138474 111366.411496 144018.442897 182845.310219 232124.657044
2026-03-01 46693.712005 63916.976962 84991.883128 112336.137148 146503.597096 187397.014724 239610.983539
2026-03-08 45259.593364 62690.297026 84210.291454 112356.008604 147783.211465 190462.632211 245286.050711
2026-03-15 44037.773901 61695.683512 83683.904987 112662.732990 149394.056965 193920.696770 251444.439554
2026-03-22 43463.057983 61520.553170 84181.139697 114252.342922 152607.758815 199362.725038 260073.889228
2026-03-29 42728.925382 61107.849668 84350.907216 115407.199034 155266.217313 204122.701762 267883.014706
2026-04-05 41849.104061 60472.035972 84206.954489 116138.331793 157375.148930 208198.083554 274856.692202
2026-04-12 40792.813771 59567.314428 83683.829186 116353.431946 158807.308014 211418.541404 280768.348012
2026-04-19 39820.731623 58747.085671 83245.370807 116655.752064 160335.342122 214753.981326 286832.962652